Snow tires and mobile phones
Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 10:34AM My car needed new snow tires this season. Like most instances of choice, the available information is limited and comes from sources that might or might not be reliable.
For instance:
- I choose where to purchase tires. Are the differences among tire retailers significant to me?
- I speak to a sales rep in the store. Do the sales rep's interests in this transaction complement my own, or are they in conflict?
- The sales rep may well show me some actual tires. There are only two or three characteristics of tires visible to me: brand name, tread pattern, and (since they're snow tires) whether they have metal studs. Do tire brands really differ? Are tread patterns significant at all? (My guess is no, since they seem to vary almost infinitely. If there was a "right answer" it seems like it would have begun to emerge over the past century or so that automobiles have needed tires.)
- I could ask people I know about their experiences with local retailers and different brands of tires. Do the anecdotes I gather represent valid data?
- I could look up comparison tests and reviews. These will compare only some of the available tires and only some of the conditions I'll experience (although hopefully fairly representative conditions). Do the tests and comparisons, based as they are on particular methods and contexts, deliver usable information?
This is a pretty typical purchasing situation: I'm making what amount to a series of guesses because it would take too much time and attention to amass valid, reliable information to support my decision. In other words, I'm not about to fully apply the scientific method to choosing a set of tires.
What I do is trust some things. I trust that a tire retailer is probably good enough as long as I haven't heard anything very negative about it. I trust that most tire brands and specific snow are functionally equivalent, within reason. I even trust that generally, the more expensive tires might be better in some respects (this is almost certainly the least reliable of these assumptions).
What I'm trusting is the vast set of systems (a "megasystem") in which snow tires are made available. An egregiously dishonest sales rep would be fired, right? A disreputable retailer would go out of business, right? Tires have to meet some baseline standards, right? A manufacturer would try to build quality, reliable products, right?
What I'm really trusting — and this is a lot to read into snow tires, I know — is the effectiveness of measurement and feedback loops in our civilization. We believe that competition among retailers, manufacturers, distributers et al, will somehow improve the end results. This can only work if outcomes (sales, durability, defects, prices) are measured and communicated.
The feedback loops of "the market", by which I mean the aggregate outcomes and communication of (in this case) everybody buying and using snow tires, are very slow, and they're unbalanced. Price is immediately clear. But it might take three years to discover a real difference in durability, and a particular advantage one tire might have on, say, black ice might become evident to only a few users. And they might not even be aware of it.
Additional non-market feedback loops augment inherently faulty price information; the comparison tests and standards I mentioned earlier. In those cases I'm once again trusting; in this case that the tests and standards will be based on issues important to me. In the case of snow tires, that's probably true; snow-tire use cases are well understood.
Despite the numerous possibilities for problems, the snow tire system functions well enough, I think. I ended up choosing the retailer by location, the sales rep by default, and the tires by a combination of factors both vague (I had at least heard of the maker) and concrete (price). The tires are good enough. And I still doubt the significance of tread patterns.
The megasystem providing mobile phones to users doesn't appear all that different from the megasystem providing snow tires to drivers. You'd think mobile-phone use cases were pretty well known by now too. I think the core use cases for mobile-phone users are understood, true. But the use cases considered important by manufacturers (with the probable exception of Apple) don't just concern users; they concern carriers. Companies like AT&T, Verizon, Orange, and the rest deliver laundry lists of requirements to manufacturers. Long laundry lists.
Carriers' requirements and users' use cases are often complementary, but not always. Sometimes the interests of a carrier are in direct conflict with users. A small example is apparent whenever a user opens the web browser on a Nokia Symbian phone, and looks at their bookmarks. The top of the list is often home to a handful of bookmarks that can't be moved or deleted. They point to sites like the carrier's online store, the carrier's information, the carrier's brand, the carrier's advertising. The bookmarks are there because the carrier listed such a requirement, and the manufacturer complied. The outcome for the user is a product that's a little bit harder to use because they can't change those "privileged" bookmarks.
Mobile phones are full of tiny little compromises like this, where a conflict between the interests of carriers and the interests of users was resolved in favor of the carrier. There's a less specific outcome too; the carriers' laundry list of requirements feeds into another list-based system of questionable value: product reviews and comparisons. A comparison test of mobile phones consists of some specific aspects you identify (a feature list), some way to measure or assess each one and a judgement made within the time available (which is never very much). The way to "win" such a comparison is by having a longer feature list or aiming at very specific measurable differences such as numerically more [memory, pixels], faster [processor, connection], bigger [screen], and so on. That and having very obvious differences that are easy to recognize right away.
The thing is, when you live with a mobile phone for at least a couple of months, depending on it as your only (or primary) phone, what you learn is almost always quite different from what a feature comparison test suggests. Human judgement is made up of lots of implicit and vague impressions. While a larger display wins the comparison, after six weeks you realize you don't really like carrying a device that size and wish it were smaller. Or there's something about the corners that bother you because they're uncomfortable to hold. Or you don't care about the super-fast connection as much as you thought because whenever you use it you realize you have to plug in your charger in the middle of the day.
It seems like this would present an intractable problem: the feedback loops of the megasystems have inherent flaws that reward short-term values like price and features, and give priority to entities like mobile carriers rather than mobile users. And yet the problem is frequently solved. Apple, for one, apparently does not prioritize carriers' short-term interests nor engage in feature-list design.
It would seem there's an additional layer of complexity in megasystems, but it's not immediately visible to all participants.
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Note: It's quite feasible, of course, that tire manufacturers do consider retailers their customers; I have no inside knowledge of the tire megasystem.
Pete |
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